1943 – One ENIAC was ~300 Operations per Second (Ops)

2003 – no smartphones, no cloud, 500M PCs x 1Gops x 10% usage = 50*10E15 + BigIron

2013 – Cloud (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple) computing cycles is ~200 petaflops {guess}

The sum of the Top500 supercomputers is >100petaflops

1B smartphone/pads x 1GOps x 25% activity = 250 PetaOps

PC sales have declined but still contribute >50*10E15

Assume Big Iron is constant (very conservative) [Note 1]

Total ~ 10**18 Ops

Ignoring the difference in FlOps and Ops.

In 70 years, Ops have increased by ~17 orders of magnitude, or about 2X Moore’s Law [Note 2]

In 10 years, Ops have increased by 200X, or about 2X Moore’s Law.

With (very fuzzy) activity assumptions, it’s not obvious that total computing is accelerating beyond **Moore’s Law**.

But total computing capacity appears to be accelerating.

[Note 1] IBM has 90% of the Big Iron market, sells ~4000 mainframes/year x 1GOps x 10 years of active installations = 4×10**13, so we can discount the impact since they’ve only gotten faster.

[Note 2] **Moore’s Law** is a metric of semiconductor performance which doubles every ~18 months.